Good News from Iowa!
DesMoinesRegister.com | News: "Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean narrowly leads U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt as the Democratic presidential frontrunner in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses."
This is the first Des Moines Register poll of the year, so there's no way to look at trend data, but it looks pretty good for Governor Dean. The raw results are
No one else is over 5%.
There are still a lot of undecideds, but:
- Dean has broad support, gathering 36% among people with incomes >$70,000, 28% of those with college degrees, 28% of those between the ages of 45 and 64, 28% of those from small cities, and 28% of men.
- Gephardt has been presumed to be the main beneficiary of union support, but Dean is the first choice of 29% of likely caucus participants from households with a union member; Gephardt gets 24% from that group.
- Dean is generally well regarded. Among those familiar enough with the candidates to have an opinion, 38% rate their feelings toward Dean as very favorable, compared to 33% for Kerry, 29% for Gephardt, and 14% for Lieberman.
- Among those who say they definitely will attend the Democratic caucuses (instead of "probably will attend"), Dean's lead over Gephardt grows to 10%.
- Gephardt's strong areas are senior citizens (28%), those with a high school education or less (31%), Protestants (30%), rural residents (27%), and women (23%).
The image of Dean heading into what looks like it's going to be a very close race in New Hampshire on the strength of a first-place finish in the Iowa caucuses must be very disturbing to the Kerry camp.