Disclaimer: I do not live in California. I have never wanted to live in California, for a variety of reasons. It is a nice place to visit, though, and I have friends living there.

Prediction: Gray Davis will not be recalled.

Yes, I know what the polls say. Yes, I know Arnold is in the race. But look a little closer at the polls. The "vote to recall" question is getting numbers of 56-58% yes, 36-38% no, which looks like a huge margin. But remember how the recall works: If Davis "loses" by getting 49% yes, 42% no, he stays in office. All he has to do is get the "yes" vote below 50%+1. Which means that the real gap he's got to attack isn't 20%, it's 8%.

Perhaps I have an unrealistic impression of Californians, but I believe that between now and the election, enough of them will conclude one or more of

• the energy crisis really wasn't Davis' fault and putting somebody else in his seat isn't going to fix it,
• the budget problems aren't all Davis' fault and putting somebody else in his seat isn't going to fix it, or
• you know, I don't like the guy, but I don't really like any of the people running that much better and it's really not such a good idea to yank a guy out of office just because you don't like him

Maybe I'm wrong. We'll find out on 10/7. Unless the courts delay it.