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The 18½ Minute Gap
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Friday, October 24, 2003
The Bush legacy
Ah, you say, it's just Krugman being shrill again. Au contraire, mon frere.
John Snow, the Treasury secretary, told The Times of London on Monday that he expected the U.S. economy to add two million jobs before the next election — that is, almost 200,000 per month. His forecast was higher than those of most independent analysts; nothing in the data suggests that jobs are being created at that rate. (New claims for unemployment insurance are running at slightly less than 400,000 a week, the number that corresponds to zero job growth. If jobs were being created as rapidly as Mr. Snow forecasts, the new claims number would be closer to 300,000.)
Faith-based economics at its finest. What, new jobless claims data is 33% too high to support your claims? Who you gonna believe, me or your lyin' eyes?

But let's back up a minute. Be charitable. Assume Mr. Snow is prescient. As of right now, we're down 2,600,000 jobs from when Bush took office. Even if we add Snow's two million jobs, Bush will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to end a term with fewer jobs than when he started. And that's if he's right.

But wait, there's more. The population isn't stagnant, you know. The economy needs to add about 130,000 jobs/month to keep the unemployment rate steady because of the growth in population. Which means that in order to maintain the same unemployment rate, we'd need to add about 7,000,000 jobs between now and next November.

Jobs. No Saddam. Lies about WMD. The Plame affair. No Osama. Taliban still active in Afghanistan. al Qaeda still active in Afghanistan. Gen. Boykin still has a job. Over 300 dead US soldiers in Iraq. Over 7,500 Iraqi civilian deaths. A half trillion dollar budget deficit next year.

Are you happy now? If so, you probably work for Halliburton. Give a few bucks to the Democrats (the "Boot Bush" button), or to the Dean campaign. Let's let the grownups run things again. Please?

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